What to Do If Your Horse Is Dead?
A Native American proverb says, “If your horse is dead, it’s time to get off.”
It may sound strange, but in both daily life and business, we often refuse to get off a dead horse. In fact, there’s even a name for this behavior: The Dead Horse Theory.
At first glance, this theory may seem like an April Fool’s joke or a tired cliché, but it carries important messages for individuals and leaders at all levels. If you’re wondering who would keep riding a dead horse, let’s explore the difficulties of letting go of habits and false hopes.
Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER)
The story of Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER) is a textbook example of the Dead Horse Theory in action.
Originally conceived in the 1990s, the airport was expected to be completed by October 2011 when construction began. However, the deadline kept getting pushed back, and costs skyrocketed.
Why did this happen? Because from the very beginning, the project was doomed to fail, but no one wanted to admit it. Eventually, the billions of euros already invested made it impossible to walk away.
The idea for the airport emerged two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and in May 1991, Berlin Brandenburg Airport Holding was established as a state-backed company, with the Berlin Mayor as its first director. From the very start, the project faced endless setbacks—frequent plan changes, legal battles, and failed privatization attempts. Finally, in 2006, all legal and bureaucratic obstacles were cleared, and construction began, with an ambitious target of completing the airport in five years.
By 2009, the construction budget was set at €2.83 billion, but as time passed, it became clear that this estimate was unrealistic. By 2012, the budget had been revised to €4.3 billion, nearly double the original amount. Despite multiple rounds of funding from the EU and the German government, it was clear that they were desperately trying to revive a dead horse.
Unexpected costs, such as additional soundproofing for surrounding buildings and an unusable metro station, led to further legal disputes and financial overruns. Meanwhile, the CEO’s €500,000 annual salary only worsened public outrage.
By 2015, the budget had soared to €6.8 billion, reaching €9.4 billion by 2018. But no one dared to abandon the project. Finally, the airport opened in 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, after costs exceeded €10 billion. However, due to travel restrictions and lower passenger numbers, the airport continued to struggle financially.
For Germany—a country known for its discipline—this was a shocking example of mismanagement. The Berlin administration kept pouring money into the project, hoping to fix issues, but instead, they often made things worse. It was the perfect example of whipping a dead horse, hoping it would start running again.
If your horse is dead, it’s time to get off.
Dead Horses in Business Life
Although BER Airport is an extreme case, dead horses exist at every level of business. Instead of acknowledging the problem, companies often resort to corporate-style solutions like:
- Buying a stronger whip.
- Replacing the rider.
- Threatening to fire the horse.
- Forming a committee to analyze the dead horse.
- Visiting other countries to study how they ride dead horses.
- Lowering performance standards so the dead horse can still qualify.
- Reclassifying the dead horse as “non-living.”
- Hiring external consultants to ride the dead horse.
- Harnessing multiple dead horses together to increase speed.
- Allocating additional budget and training to improve the dead horse’s performance.
- Conducting an efficiency study to see if lightweight riders can make the dead horse faster.
- Declaring that dead horses require no food, making them cost-effective.
- Redefining expected performance metrics for all horses.
- Promoting the dead horse to a supervisory role.
(This list is adapted from the article Dead Horse Theory: How to Resurrect a Failed Project.)
Stop Whipping the Dead Horse
The Dead Horse Theory applies to all aspects of life—business, personal relationships, and individual goals. If something isn’t working, and you keep hitting a wall, it might be time to stop forcing it. Instead of wasting energy, it’s better to assess the situation and find a new approach.
Whipping a dead horse only drains your time and energy while lowering your motivation and efficiency. Rather than holding onto something that no longer serves you, redirect your focus and resources into more productive avenues.
If you think this doesn’t apply to you, I challenge you to look around with a “dead horse detector.” You’ll likely find individuals, companies, and even entire nations refusing to give up on their dead horses.
At this point, you might be wondering: “But 21st Century, in other articles, you told us not to give up. How do I know when to quit?”
Diagnosing a dead horse isn’t always easy. But the article on The Sunk Cost Fallacy can help—especially if the reason you’re holding on is because of past investments.